Some ramblings on Vegas-

-Naked Fish is very good and cheap (relatively). (This is not breaking news). I have not had many tremendously nice restaurants and am hoping to hit up one or two before I leave.

-Coming from South America, Vegas is ridiculously expensive…hell, even relative to other U.S. cities it is expensive. As stated previously, though, you go into a degen mentality and don’t really care. I am running alright with regards to flips (actually, thinking about it now, I’m up in equity).

-I was waiting to meet up with some friends and sitting on the rail of the Wynn Poker room. I start talking with an old black man and find out that he went to NU and was an ex-roommate of Johnny Rodgers, a Heisman winner. He said he was his backup and transferred to Michigan, probably due to never being able to play.

I’m not really sure how much of this was bullshit but I dunno. He currently bet horses and other sports as a retired pit boss of 30 years. He took a call and picked a few horses, saying that his boss called to confirm a few more horse bets. I asked who his boss was and he replied “Bobby Baldwin”.

“Bullshit…you don’t know Bobby Baldwin”
“Everyone has an opinion. Wait here an hour and he’ll be here.”

I later watched some horses with him and he won his bet. I met my friends and never had a chance to see Bobby. I still wonder if that guy was full of shit.

-Live poker has been going pretty meh…though, I’ve only played two sessions. I pretty much had zero hands and couldn’t really win a pot over 50bbs.

I didn’t play great either, but gah, still frustrating. The only interesting hand I had was:

I open T8o in LP. I get a few callers (all of a variety of different player types and stack sizes).

Flop: 972r- I bet, I get one caller in position. He’s a looser guy who I earlier bluffed against.

Turn: Qx- I bet again ($80 into whatever), he raises to $180. I think I probably should have jammed here (or folded)…instead, I took the worst option and called.

River: Tx- I check, he bets $400 into whatever. I tank for a long time and fold. He shows 34s for the stone cold bluff. I feel dirty at my poor play.

Anyways, nothing else to note. I have some friends coming up today and am looking forward to seeing them. Might play in some venetian events but I’m still unsure.

I haven’t written any poker content for a while, so here is something short I wrote up-

There have been many changes over the years in the strategies employed in 6-max NL holdem. From wider 3-bet ranges to turning hands into bluffs, these are but a few concepts that were relatively unseen in many of the NL games of yesteryear.

Further, the concept of ‘pot control’ is another such tactic. In the past, we often learned to check the turn with a marginal hand (hands that could not stand a check/raise). This was to keep the pot smaller and to induce villain to bluff the river.

(one short example): Villain opens MP, you call BTN with 77. Flop T42r, villain bets, you call. Turn 6, villain checks, you check for pot control.

The idea is fine in theory…at least against some players. A spazzy donk will bet the river, not hand reading, not understanding why you would check the turn and call the river (surely you must be weak!).
But, as stated previously, the games have changed. Better players are more numerous; higher skilled and more aggressive than previous years. Further, they can hand read, which negates the entire purpose of this pot control turn play.

Here is why it is often better to bet the turn with most all of your range in a single raised pot (pf) in position (with the idea of you having a marginal value hand on the turn in position)–

-Checking fucks you hand strength . When you check back the turn, you rarely have a set. Or an overpair. Or 2pair…or anything strong. When you check back the turn, you have a marginal showdown hand, be it TPNK or worse.

-This makes it easy for villains to check/raise bluff the river, an easy solution to counter the check back turn. He knows that you can never really be hugely strong (few villains at SSNL are tricky enough to do this).

-Along with the strength of your hand, checking fucks your value range. Hands that normally might call one bet are more likely to call on the turn than the river (after you check the turn that is). Take the same above example (the 77 hand on T42r board). Villain will probably think that you’re floating some % of the time and will check/call that turn with a wide variety of hands, bet it a pair or A high or whatever.

He’s often going to continue betting himself with a strong hand (Tx+), and like yourself, he’s rarely going to be tricky enough to check/call the turn with a monster. (check/raise is in consideration, but facing a c/r, it’s an easy dump vs. most all opponents).

So against a good hand reader, villain knows that you have a value hand (marginal or w/e) once you check that turn…he knows you’re going to call one river bet, thus lowering his bluffing frequency. So why would he check/call the river with like…A high or whatever?

-Villain often won’t have a hand to check/call either the turn or river. As stated, I think that most TAG players will typically bet/bet/bet with most strong hands (and obviously there are exceptions). Many times, checking for pot control does little, because villain won’t bluff the river, he won’t call a river bet (once you check the turn). So with that in mind, I think it’s better to at least protect your hand a little bit (and often a bet gives you the same result (him folding) only the turn is better for these reasons listed). If villain isn’t bluffing river and he’s probably not going to call either street, I’d rather not give him the 10-20% equity freeroll or whatever on the turn.

-Checking the turn negates your bluffing range. Oftentimes we float against straightforward players. By betting the turn (with a variety of hands), we give ourselves so much more leverage when in position. Villain cannot simply think to himself “alright, I can call now and he won’t bet the river”…villain knows that if he himself has a marginal hand (which, he often will given that he checks the turn…I would say most just bet/bet/bet with a strong hand) and he can’t often take heat. Now villain has to worry about the river.

-I also think that it’s going to be better (typically) to bet draws on the turn as well. Many players are autopiloting, c-betting the flop and just c/f-ing from there. While there are obvious merits to checking back the turn with draws (don’t want to get blown off), it’s usually not a huge deal anyways since you a) don’t typically have much SD value and thus not much equity in general.

Now, there are obviously times when checking the turn can be fine (and IS the correct play). Against weaker opponents it can definitely be the optimal line… This post was stated in a broader sense, in an overall game plan.

So a topic that has been on my mind lately is the idea of game selection and multi-limit playing. It’s weird how many players only play one specific limit during a given week. A friend of mine opened my eyes a few years back when he was playing 2/4NL one day and 10/20NL the next. I was confused for the first bit, asking myself “why would he do that? wouldn’t $200 seem like chicken shit if he was playing 5/10 the next day?”

The answer is pretty simple. With the way poker is today, regulars need to be flexible in their play, both in game limits and games themselves (many have branched over to PLO). You’ll often hear of mid stakes regulars who play 5/10 and 2/4 in the same day (or higher and lower depending). Take shots when games are good (ie. a fish is playing and you’re adequately rolled), drop down when they suck. One thing I personally can’t do is play multiple limits at the same time (ie. 1 5/10NL table open and then a 50 PLO game or something of that nature)…maybe just not good at multitasking enough.

Playing multiple limits is great psychologically as well. If you’re running bad, dropping down for a few days should be fairly obvious- grinding it out at normal limits with tougher opponents (than the lower staked) can lead to a prolonging downswing…but going down a limit and crushing can lead to good results and (even more importantly) resounding confidence. Today I played some 50NL for an hour and crushed.

Egos die fast in poker…sure everyone is cocky and arrogant, but those who refuse to accept that there are better opponents (and that their play(s) can be suspect)- they get their just deserts soon enough. Everyone eats their slice of humble pie at one point or another in their poker career.

In other news, I finally filtered alot of my PLO results over the past year or so. Before my monster downer, I was up probably $25k in maybe 80k hands of mainly 1/2 PLO. After the downer (probably ~10k in mostly 1/2) the results obviously aren’t as nice. Pretty much all on my damn desktop too, wish I could just scrap this piece of shit computer (rigged computer) for some of that money back.

I’ve decided I’m not going to play any more PLO for the rest of the month. It’s too frustrating of a game, I’m not playing well, etc. I loaded up my PLO graphs from the last few months, god they are nasty. Not only am I bleeding money postflop (non sd winnings are hilariously awful) but I’m also 5k under equity (in last 10k hands, playing mostly .5/1 and some 1/2). Not even sure what my laptop has but I assume something similar.

Going to take a few days off playing…not really playing well, not running well, not doing anything.

Interesting post by DOGISHEAD with regards to his current feelings about poker- http://blogs.cardrunners.com/BLAG/but-dont-forget-to-hold-me-1265853667

We all have our end, especially in a game like this…when will mine be? No idea. I’ve seen dozens of friends rise through the ranks and play high/make a ton of money. Alternately, I’ve seen twice that number give up the game, leave forever, never to return. Easy money doesn’t stay easy for long.

I’ve been thinking alot about the current state of poker and the future. This post is partly inspired by the article I linked last time, seen on Anskypoker.com- http://www.anskypoker.com/2010/02/the-poker-life-cycle/

The world of online poker is a declining one…not only because of the population setback (there are less players coming into the game, poker is no longer the new ‘fad’, etc) but also an increase in poker information available. While fish are always going to be fish (those who choose to not pursue strategy and will remain poor players for their entire life), the wealth of information out there has grown tremendously the past few years.

Looking at the micro limits, players now have:
-training sites
-Forums (and their stickies/etc)
-Coaching
-etc

There has been a tremendous move towards staking- midstakes+ players want to get many horses, stake dozens of smaller staked players and generate that ultimate goal of passive income. With the staking often comes support from the stakee (usually hand advice) and the lower limit players become better.

All of a sudden, we now have dozens of smaller staked guys moving through the limits/beating some of the micro limits, players who probably never would have before.

Obviously there is still an abundance of fish (especially at the lower limits)…but the mid/high staked games are getting tougher as time passes.

Headsup is another factor in the poker economy. Why sit with 4 other good players and 1 fish when you can have the fish all to yourself? Headsup has been a lucrative enterprise for many players the past few years…but with it has brought the element of ‘bum hunting’ (only playing fish) to an extreme measure…some people will sit out if you raise preflop…the very idea of that extremity makes me sick. Sure, everyone is a relative bum hunter to some degree (in that we will rarely give up medium-large edges to our opponents when playing)…but when someone sits out because he sees a 3-bet preflop, what a joke.

Headsup has led to a relative decline in action the past few years…people sit 5 tables+ at a time and the poker lobbies are filled with hundreds of people waiting for action. Fish bust fast, since a good player’s edge is magnified largely by only playing one person.

I imagine that the micro games are evolving as well. The last time I played 25nl in a serious sense was probably 2005…and while I’m a bit out of touch with those games, I have seen that 3-betting light/etc is commonplace, something that would have never been seen back then.

Games are evolving, players are getting better…fish are losing faster, regulars on all levels are getting better, and Howard Lederer is sitting back rubbing his hands together while his minions pile his cash. As fish experience less success at the bottom, it slows their progression to the higher limits (MSNL+). I would not recommend trying to play poker right now, at least until China gets in this shit….then we’ll have a ton of degenerates helping our games!